Dismantling “The gambler’s fallacy”: discover how to create winning strategies in sports betting


Many bettors and self-proclaimed professionals in the sector take the gambler’s fallacy as absolute and indisputable truth. I think it’s smart to consider everything and draw each one’s own conclusions based on proven facts. Taking advantage of the existence of tools such as Betamin Builder, we now have the possibility of analyzing specific historical data within everyone’s reach. With the help of this tool, I am going to dare to raise doubts about the well-known gambler’s fallacy and I am going to reveal how it is possible to beat the bookmakers.

Well, so far everything is very logical, very clear, and indisputable. The coin or they die, has no memory, and each throw is an independent event, it is completely true and absurd to rethink something like that. If I get several heads in a row when tossing a coin, on the next toss the probability of getting heads will be 50%, not higher or lower, and there is no more to say.

But when we talk about the 22Bet Ghana app and sports betting things change. In a coin, it is very clear what the probability of getting heads or tails is, 50% without a doubt, but in a football match or other sporting event, how do we know what the exact probability is? Is each game an independent event even if it is within the same league or competition? Does the player in a tennis match, or the players in a soccer match, have no memory like coins?

Faced with these questions, let’s go by parts. That players are not like coins and do have memory is something that is quite obvious, and therefore their behavior can vary according to the recent results of previous matches, what we do not know is how.

That each match within the same competition is an independent event is also quite obviously not true. In fact, in the final stretch of a competition, a team that tries to avoid relegation will surely not behave the same as another that is guaranteed permanence, and this difference in behavior is caused by previous events.

As for what is the exact probability of occurrence of a sporting event, many factors come into play here. On the one hand, the oddsmakers propose exit odds more or less quite adjusted to the probability of the event, but these odds vary over time until they close. Other factors come into play, such as the balance of balances for each result that there is in the bookmaker, and this balance is modified by what is known as ” the wisdom of the crowd “, that is, there is a theory that affirms that the general public is capable of correcting by itself the errors of the oddsmakers themselves. In fact, there are several fairly conclusive experiments on the operation and results of the “wisdom of the crowd “.” in any field, not only in sports betting.

Without going into greater complexities, it can be concluded that the starting odds are proposed by professional oddsmakers and then the possible errors are corrected by the general public. And both in the case of oddsmakers and in the case of the general public, the human factor enters. Both are, and humans do have memory, unlike coins.

In a conclusion of all this, I think we have a more than enough basis to raise doubts about whether the gambler’s fallacy is applicable to sports betting or not.

eye! I am not raising doubts about the gambler’s fallacy itself, which is completely true. If we knew with total accuracy the exact probability of any event, there would be no discussion. What I am suggesting is that there may be calculation errors on the odds due to streaks prior to the event.

In other words, since the factors that define betting odds on sporting events are human and have memory, is it possible that they make a mistake when assigning odds to events affected by a streak, such as games in a row without winning or losing, consecutive games without scoring a goal, etc.? Is the gambler’s fallacy as we know it really applicable to sports betting?

Let’s put on the white coat of scientists, let’s enter the experimentation laboratory, and see it with concrete data from Betamin Builder. A great advantage of using this tool is that anyone can check the results for themselves, there is no reason to simply believe what I expose here, that could be manipulated. Try it for yourself.

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